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Online Retail Monthly Report | October

 

Key Takeaways from our online retail ETF monthly report: 

  • Deloitte Forecasts Double-Digit Growth Holiday Season for Online Retail -According to Deloitte’s forecast, e-commerce sales will grow by 11-15%, year-over-year, during the 2021-2022 holiday season. This will likely result in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $210 billion and $218 billion this season. E-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories. [1]
  • Amazon rolling out “Black Friday-worthy Deals” Early, Kicking Off Holiday Shopping Season – Amazon will be adding deals and “deep discounts” across all categories on select days through October and November to jump start the holiday shopping season.[2]
  • Shortages an Ongoing Concern – Shoppers are aware of supply chain challenges and 62% are concerned about not receiving items in time for the holidays according to a survey by Publicis Sapient.  Other online retailers in addition to Amazon are expected to move up their promotional schedule.  According to Creditcards.com, 27% of holiday shoppers will have already started their holiday shopping by September. [3]
  • BOPIS a Holiday Season Saviour – Labour shortages are going to be a big challenge this holiday season. Cooped-up customers want to shop in a safe environment and manpower-starved retailers want to avoid labour-intensive last mile fulfilment. Buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) and curb side delivery options will be a saviour for the retail holiday season.[4]

 

Macro Outlook

Global Ecommerce Remains on Double-Digit Pace Following Pandemic Push Online. 

Following a major shift to online retail in 2020, retail ecommerce sales will continue to grow by double digits through 2023 and make up an increasing share of total retail sales worldwide. By 2023, eMarketer projects worldwide retail ecommerce sales will total $6.169 trillion and make up a 22.3% share of total retail sales, up from $3.351 trillion and 13.8% in 2019. [5]

Ecommerce growth is expected to remain strong heading into the holiday season and the pandemic persists in many parts of the world and consumers have formed new buying habits shopping online.  Continued supply chain disruptions and labour shortages also favour online over traditional retail channels this holiday season, as cash-rich consumers secure holiday purchases. 

Worldwide ecommerce sales are expected to continue their upward trajectory, reaching $7.385 trillion by 2025 and making up a 24.5% share of all retail sales. In 2022, China's retail ecommerce sales will surpass 50% of total retail sales in the country and will climb to 56.8% by 2025. [6]

 

Global Online Retail ETF and Index Performance Table (As of 30.09.2021)

 

1M

3M

6M

YTD

12M

SI

Global Online Retail UCITS ETF

-5.98%

-13.51%

-4.01%

-7.43%

NA

-7.43%

EQM Global Online Retail Growth Index

-5.93%

-13.35%

-3.66%

-7.09%

22.96%

-7.09%

Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 30/09/2021. Performance before inception is based on back tested data. Back testing is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such strategy would have been. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. 

 

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