ESG-Screened Gold Miners Monthly Report | January

16 January 2024

Gold Mining ETF Macro Outlook | January

There is no bull market quite like a gold bull market

  • On December 4th, the price of gold reached a new all-time high, briefly surpassing USD 2,100.
  • Gold also displayed strong performance, recording the highest monthly and annual closes, finishing the year at USD 2,063 per troy ounce (+13,2%).
  • Simultaneously, the price of silver concluded the year at USD 23.9, yielding a gold-to-silver ratio of 86:1.
  • We foresee a sequence of new all-time highs for gold in 2024, signalling a new long-term bull market.
  • In this emerging bull market, expected to last many years, we predict the gold-to-silver ratio will drop below 30:1, setting an initial goal for 2024 at 70:1.
  • Since the great financial crisis, central banks have consistently increased their gold reserves, setting new records in both 2022 and 2023.
  • We believe that central banks will shift away from rate hikes and adopt a more accommodative policy stance in 2024, which will catalyze a substantial upswing in gold prices for the foreseeable future.
  • The USD is anticipated to continue its decline against the EUR and GBP in 2024, as the Federal Reserve is likely to commence a cycle of interest rate reductions. Moreover, the USD is gradually shedding some of its premium as the world's reserve currency. Both these factors are expected to provide significant support for gold priced in USD.
  • Therefore, we project that gold will close in 2024 with at least a 20 per cent increase in USD and anticipate that mining stocks will surpass the actual commodity in performance.
  • Should gold appreciate by 20 per cent, it would end the year at USD 2,475, and with a gold-to-silver ratio of 70:1, silver would close at USD 35, equating to a 48 per cent return.

Sources available upon request.

 

Gold Mining ETF Performance
 
As of 31.12.2023

 

1M

3M

6M

YTD

12M

2Y

SI

AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF (ESGO)

0.48%

17.21%

5.45%

5.61%

5.61%

-4.55%

-8.17%

Solactive AuAg ESG Gold Mining Index

0.52%

17.42%

5.82%

6.46%

6.46%

-3.31%

-6.80%

 


 
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31/12/2023

Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk.

Sign Up to Insights

Tell us how we can help