During the month, FED chairman Jerome Powell's speech from Jackson Hole about continued interest rate hikes had a major impact on the market. The message was that they won't stop raising rates until they reach their goal, regardless of how painful it may be. This caused the market to reverse sharply and become more negative again. [1]
Gold, like stocks, usually goes "ahead" of today's events, and prices are set according to the market's future expectations. Gold started pricing in today's inflation early and has risen 23.1% in euro over the past three years.[2] During the past months, the market has discounted higher interest rates and a more challenging business climate going forward. This means that the market will now focus on future scenarios with lower interest rates, a weaker dollar and the effects of todays and future large fiscal support measures (higher debt levels). [3]
We believe gold is likely to gain strength with the upcoming fiscal stimulus. It looks even better for silver due to a very favorable positioning on the important COMEX exchange. Trend-following funds have probably maxed out their short (naked short) positions, and Commercials have now reversed and are long silver. During the decline since the 8th of March, the biggest buyers of silver have been Commercials on the COMEX exchange, and there has been a lot of buying pressure from Asia, with India at the top. In addition, the market has already priced in China's Covid-related shutdowns, which has pressured all commodity prices for a long time. [4]
Historically, the best buying opportunities for silver are when the sentiment is at rock bottom and the so-called "gold to silver ratio" reaches high levels.[6] It is now around 95:1, which is one of the highest in our history, and should at least go down to 30-40:1. Theoretically, it should be 16:1, according to Isaac Newton, as that is the natural ratio that can be extracted from the earth. [6]
Source of all data: AuAg Funds / Bloomberg / Sustainalytics / Solactive. Data as of 31.08.2022.
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product.
Macro Outlook
We expect politicians to step in with various creative support measures to limit the effects of a recession. This will have to be financed through increased indebtedness, which will be inflationary and counteract the central banks' attempts to bring down inflation. [7]
As we mentioned earlier, we are waiting for the currency speculators to change their footing and start going long the euro and let go of the US dollar, which has risen so much in the past year. The US interest rate increases have already been priced in, and now they want to position themselves for more hikes from the ECB. A weak currency is certainly making it easy for exporting countries, but at the same time, you get a lot of imported price inflation, which is worrying. [8]
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1M
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3M
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6M
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YTD
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12M
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SI
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AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF (ESGO)
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-11.25%
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-25.09%
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-34.00%
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-30.71%
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-29.80%
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-33.33%
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Solactive AuAg ESG Gold Mining Index
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-11.25%
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-25.01%
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-33.93%
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-30.54%
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-29.51%
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-33.05%
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Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31/08/2022. Please note that all performance figures show net data.
Composition / Holdings
In the ordinary rebalance, the new composition will be implemented over a period starting on 24.06.2022 (cob) and ending on 29.06.2022 (cob). The new composition and target weights will be fully reflected in the index open 30.06.2022:
- New constitutes (green and bold)
- Deletions (red and drawn out)
- Constitutes with over 85% participation from all 31 quarterly rebalances since the index start on 27.03.2015 (dark)
- ESGO, ESG Risk Score – average: 24,37 / highest: 31,01 (Endeavour)
- Universe, ESG Risk Score – average: 38,10 / highest: 65,20 (as of ESGO inception July 2021)
Source of all data: AuAg Funds / Bloomberg / Sustainalytics / Solactive. Data as of 31.08.2022
Learn more about our gold miners ETF.