Gold Miners Monthly Report | July

Gold Miners ETF Monthly Report: Key Takeaways

• During the month of June, central banks around the world, almost in a panic, raised interest rates. Several of them have increased by 0.5% instead of the more common 0.25%. In the USA it was the largest interest rate hike in 28 years and Sweden in 22 years. In addition, many central banks have communicated an aggressive rate hike path with several significant upcoming hikes. Interest rate hikes have shaken the world's stock markets, with several companies in certain sectors, such as real estate companies that are -50% this year alone. The high inflation has scared the central banks, which are now doing everything in their power to stop a threatening inflation spiral. [1]

• As the debts in the system have grown so much larger in recent years, we do not believe that the central banks will be able to raise interest rates to the extent they wish - if they do not want to cause a total collapse at the same time. The last time in December 2018, the Fed turned around when they reached 2.5% and then initiated rate cuts again to avoid a crash. As soon as they deviate from the communicated future rate hike path with further increases, the stock market and other assets are likely to rise sharply. [2]   

• Gold fell -1.6% in USD and +0.1% in EUR during the month. It is worth noting that gold set a new all-time high in EUR as recently as March 2022. Gold has performed well during the 2000s, and the extremely expansive money supply growth speaks for gold for a long time to come. If, on the other hand, you look at the market in the short term, indicators such as COMEX positionings and sector sentiment are important to buy low and sell high. [3] 

Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product.

Macro Outlook

The COMEX positionings are now extremely bullish (positive) as commercials have bought during the downturn while retail investors have sold their long positions and gone short precious metals. In the last three years, commercials have never been in a better situation to get out of their previously built-up and market-affecting short positions. The big commercials have really positioned themselves for higher prices. Retail investors will start buying back their short positions when prices turn around and gradually break through the moving 50 and 200-day averages. As these investors have no physical commodity to deliver (naked short), the current situation is a breeding ground for explosive movements upwards. [4]

Interest rate hikes are expected to continue in the near future as they are still below 1% in most developed economies. In the foreign exchange market, the USD has strengthened to historically very high levels. We expect that a reversal of the latest trend could have a significant impact on several companies depending on the sector and the USD prices for precious metals.

AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF (ESGO) Performance Table (As of 30.06.22)

Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31/05/2022. Please note that all performance figures show net data. 

Composition / Holdings

In the ordinary rebalance, the new composition will be implemented over a period starting on 24.06.2022 (cob) and ending on 29.06.2022 (cob). The new composition and target weights will be fully reflected in the index open 30.06.2022:

• New constitutes (green and bold)
• Deletions (red and drawn out)
• Constitutes with over 85% participation from all 31 quarterly rebalances since the index start on 27.03.2015 (dark)
• ESGO, ESG Risk Score – average: 24,37 / highest: 31,01 (Endeavour)
• Universe, ESG Risk Score – average: 38,10 / highest: 65,20 (as of ESGO inception July 2021)

Source of all data: AuAg Funds / Bloomberg / Sustainalytics / Solactive. Data as of 30.06.2022

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