Gold Miners Monthly Report | May

Gold Miners ETF Monthly Report: Key Takeaways

It is now clear that central banks feel compelled to try to solve the problems that they themselves have created. Inflation has already reached historically high levels, especially concerning the interest rates on bank accounts. There is now talk of multiple future interest rate hikes, and several central banks have now also begun the process of the first hike above 0%. [1]

We are now also witnessing an increased awareness that the "interest to pay" is a function of the interest rate level and the debt level. The level of debt in the world is the alarming problem. It is more than twice as big now compared to 2008, when the system was about to crash due to a debt crisis. Back then, we did not solve the underlying problem, which was excessive debt levels. Instead, liquidity was pushed into the system, creating even more credit and debt. In addition, they reduced interest rates which got the wheels turning again. [2]

Gold prices declined during the month in USD (-2.1%) but increased in EUR (+ 2.8%). It is important to see the price/value change for gold in your currency in the country where you live. Gold set a new all-time high in EUR as recently as last month. [3]

Macro Outlook

For the short-term movements in precious metals, the positioning on the American commodity exchange COMEX is important. Last month, it was not so good as large banks, the so-called "commercials", had increased their short positions. Smaller customers have sold during the recent price correction, and commercials have bought instead. This means that we are now moving towards a more and more bullish (positive) COMEX positioning.

The market is often worried ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting, and it is precisely the uncertainty that is creating a weaker situation for both stock exchanges and precious metals. Gold has historically been strong in interest rate hike cycles but weak in the period before the hikes themselves. The trading phrase "buy the rumour, sell the news" often turns out to be true. Now everyone has bought dollars, and when everyone is sitting on the same side of the boat, the next direction will probably be the reverse. This means that we expect the downward pressure on gold in USD to disappear after the interest rate hike has been communicated.

AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF (ESGO) Performance Table (As of 30.04.22)

Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 30/04/2022. Please note that all performance figures show net data. 

Composition / Holdings

In the ordinary rebalance, the new composition will be implemented over a period starting on 25.03.2022 (cob) and ending on 30.03.2022 (cob). The new composition and target weights will be fully reflected in the index open 31.03.2022:

• New constitutes (green and bold)
• Deletions (red and drawn out)
• Constitutes with over 85% participation from all 29 quarterly rebalances since the index start on 27.03.2015 (dark)
• ESGO, ESG Risk Score – average: 25,31 / highest: 32,28 (Endeavour)
• Universe, ESG Risk Score – average: 38,10 / highest: 65,20 (as of ESGO inception July 2021)

Source of all data: AuAg Funds / Bloomberg / Sustainalytics / Solactive. Data as of 31.03.2022

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