Monthly Gold Miners Report | November

Gold Mining ETF Monthly Report: Key Takeaways

Return potential: The equal-weighted design gives more exposure towards mid-cap and an underweighting of dominant mega-companies. This provides a beneficial return profile for the ETF in a bull market for gold and gold miners. 

Lower risk: No concentration risk in comparison to liquid/market-weighted ETFs. The probability of having, for example, two or three companies with a combined weighting of 25-35% is relatively high in a market/liquid-weighted index for a single sector. 

Active ESG screening: Our gold mining ETF tracks 25 best-in-class ESG Risk companies in the sector. A unique opportunity to access the theme via an ESG conscious mandate. The ESG Risk data is provided by Sustainalytics.

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October 2021

The Treasury was likely to exhaust its extraordinary measures by the 18th of October. [1] Congress did, however, raise the debt limit by 480 billion USD, which now allows the government to loan more to keep paying the bills through early December. [2]

The very favourable positioning structure on the US Commodity Exchange (COMEX) saw retail investors closing their short positions on higher prices which led to even stronger performance for precious metals. [3]

Gold and Silver rebounded during October taking the equities with them for a strong Precious Metals month, especially for mining companies (see performance table on page 3) 

Outlook

Here are some important factors that will impact the investment environment for precious metals going forward:

In 13 years (since the financial crisis in 2008), the Fed’s balance sheet has gone from 1 trillion USD to over 8 trillion USD [4], which has supported the global equity market during all these years. Are we about to see tapering, tightening and meaningful rate hikes? And will inflation rise faster, making real rates even more negative?

Our view is that everybody takes a debt limit solution for granted, so any negative surprises would make the market nervous and could result in higher volatility

After the position changed at COMEX in October [5], we observe a continued positive outlook, but at the same time a little less favorable in comparison to the extreme positioning last month.

We believe 2021 will be a strong year for precious metals miners. The gold price has been a bit lower in 2021 than 2020, but with a similar yearly average price. 2020 was a record year for the average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) margin. The AISC margin is the gold price minus the cost to produce the metal. [6]

AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF Performance (As of 31.10.21)

Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31/10/2021. Please note that all performance figures show net data.

Composition / Holdings

In the ordinary rebalance, the following composition has been implemented over a period starting on 27.09.2021 (cob) and ending on 29.09.2021 (cob). The new composition and target weights have been fully reflected in the index open 01.10.2021:

• New constitutes (green and bold)• Deletions (red and drawn out)
• Constitutes with over 85% participation from all 27 quarterly rebalances since the start of the index (dark)
• ESGO, ESG Risk Score – average: 26,48 / highest: 33,97 (Barrick)
• Universe, ESG Risk Score – average: 36,07 / highest: 61,49
• Index value as of 31.10.2021: 2185,31 / +118,53% (index start date 27.03.2015, at 1000.00)

Source of all data: AuAg Funds / Bloomberg / Sustainalytics / Solactive. 

Weighting & Rebalancing

On each selection day, each index component is assigned an equal weight. The index is rebalanced quarterly with a four-day Asian rebalancing.

SFDR & ESG Risk Rating Methodology

The ETF is classified as Article 8 under the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR).

The ESG Risk data is provided by Sustainalytics and is active, external as well as independent. The ESG Risk Ratings measure the degree to which a company’s economic value is at risk driven by ESG factors or, more technically speaking, the magnitude of a company’s unmanaged ESG risks. To calculate the ESG risk rating of each company, the Data Provider considers the corporate governance and material ESG issues.

Corporate governance is a foundational element in the ESG Risk Ratings and reflects our conviction that poor Corporate Governance poses material risks for companies. Corporate governance is based on six pillars and 15 indicator weights. Material ESG Issues (MEIs) contribute to the ESG risk rating. A company can have up to ten pre-selected, industry-specific MEIs plus any additional company-specific issues.

Megatrend news – Monetary Inflation

Central Banks & Global Debt: In October, the US congress decided to raise the debt limit by $480 billion. This decision means that the US government will be able to pay its bills until early December 2021.

The increasing energy prices in China and Europe have resulted in higher prices for aluminium, silicon and zinc. To mitigate the impact of the rising energy prices, the EU’s executive branch has advised all 27 member countries to follow their recommended measures. This includes adopting tax cuts and issuing state aid, which means taking on more debt.

Megatrend news – Transformation to a Green World

Sustainable Mining: The World Gold Council is an organisation that aims to develop different aspects of the gold industry. The most forward-thinking gold miners in the world are already following their responsible gold mining principles. These gold mining companies have now also committed to the reporting guidelines from the Taskforce for Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). This means that they have integrated topics related to climate change in their governance, strategy and risk management systems.

Producers – A Golden Opportunity 

In AuAg’s opinion, gold miners are well-positioned to profit from higher gold prices as many have cleaned their balance sheets during gold’s last bear market. We see a “lean & mean” sector with a growing number of M&As as it is hard to find new deposits. We also see more buybacks as well as a trend of higher and higher dividends.

The price of gold may, over time, reflect the megatrend of unabated money printing and growing debt. When the price of gold rises in a bull market, it can have a dramatic impact on the profitability of a gold mining company.

Precious Metals are a part of the solution in the transformation to a green world. However, as the mining sector is a part of the global greenhouse gas emissions, it is important to be conscious of ESG aspects when investing. Modern Gold Miners now go on the grid, use solar energy, and use fuel-cell mining trucks. This is needed to be in line with the Paris Agreement.

Gold, Silver and Fiat Currencies

At AuAg, we like to see gold/silver as the standard measure of value and that the fiat currencies are either appreciating or depreciating against gold/silver. In the market, the price of gold and Silver is in USD. This makes the price of these metals cheaper or more expensive in other currencies depending on the movements between, for example, USD and EUR.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Source of all data: AuAg Funds. Data as of 31.10.2021. Please note that all performance figures show net data

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To learn more about the AuAg gold mining ETF, please visit the fund page here.